Several climate factors are expected to affect Montserrat during the remainder of the year.
In a social media post, the Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) here, broke down the latest outlook provided by the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), and its significance for Montserrat. The outlook provides important climate information for the October to December 2026 period.
During the second half of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and the transition out of the Caribbean Wet and Heat Seasons, very strong El Niño conditions are expected to influence the region.
For Montserrat and the wider Lesser Antilles, this means several important climate considerations.
Humid heat may linger, particularly during the transition out of the Heat Season, with heatwaves possible.
Tropical cyclone activity, as well as showers, wet spells and excessive rainfall events are expected to occur less frequently than usual.
However, lower frequency of these events does not mean that the region is free from risk. A single tropical cyclone event can still cause significant or catastrophic effects.
The potential for flooding, flash floods and cascading hazards remains high to extremely high across the Caribbean. Heavy rainfall can have serious impacts, particularly in vulnerable areas.
Saharan dust incursions is another climate factor to consider. Although less frequent at this time of year, dust incursions may further suppress tropical cyclone development while contributing to heat and poorer air quality.
It was also noted that seasonal climate outlooks describe expected trends over months and do not predict specific day-to-day weather events. The DMCA encouraged residents to stay weather-aware and prepared.
The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) seasonal outlooks are produced through the Caribbean Regional Climate Centre (RCC) of the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH).